## Mental Models - [The School of Thought](https://www.schoolofthought.org/) - [Mental Models: The Best Way to Make Intelligent Decisions (109 Models Explained)](https://fs.blog/mental-models/) - [Mental Models I Find Repeatedly Useful](https://medium.com/@yegg/mental-models-i-find-repeatedly-useful-936f1cc405d) - [Mental Models: Learn How to Think Better and Gain a Mental Edge](https://jamesclear.com/mental-models) - [Who is Charlie Munger? Wit and Wisdom From The World's Most Irreverent Billionaire](https://fs.blog/intellectual-giants/charlie-munger/) - [Mental model examples: How to actually use them | Elon Musk](https://www.julian.com/blog/mental-model-examples) - [Mental Models: The Ultimate Guide](https://blog.hubspot.com/marketing/mental-models) - [The Cognitive Bias Codex: A Visual Of 180+ Cognitive Biases -](https://www.teachthought.com/critical-thinking/the-cognitive-bias-codex-a-visual-of-180-cognitive-biases/) ## Decision Frameworks - [Farnam Street framework](https://fs.blog/2014/02/decision-journal/) 1. Situation 2. Problem 3. Variables 4. Complexity 5. Range of outcomes 6. What will likely happens + probabilities 7. Context in which you're making the decision - How to make a decision in 4 steps - [[Twitter]] 8. **Do you have enough information?** Note that the marginal gain from having additional information is rarely worth its gathering effort. 9. **Is it high impact**? If yes, go ahead. If not, ask whether it's worth it. 10. **Is it expensive in energy and price**? If low, go ahead. If high, reconsider relevance. 11. **Is it Reversible**? Hiring someone is, letting go of someone very rarely is. - Human Machine framework - Substance: amount of info we have on the matter - Impact - Intensity - Reversibility - ![[decision framework.jpg]] ## Heuristics 1. Murphy Law - The more you fear something happening, the more likely it is to occur. 2. Kidlin Law - If you write a problem down clearly and specifically, you have solved half of it. 3. Gilbert Law - When you take on a task, finding the best ways to achieve the desired result is always your responsibility. 4. Wilson Law - If you prioritise knowledge and intelligence money will continue to come. 5. Falkland Law - If you don't have to make a decision about something, then don't decide 6. Lindy's Law - Future life expectancy is proportional to current age. 1. Best applied to non-perishable things, like ideas, technologies, and relationships. 2. If a book has been in print for forty years, I can expect it to be in print for another forty years. But, and that is the main difference, if it survives another decade, then it will be expected to be in print another fifty years. This, simply, as a rule, tells you why things that have been around for a long time are not "aging" like persons, but "aging" in reverse. Every year that passes without extinction doubles the additional life expectancy. This is an indicator of some robustness. The robustness of an item is proportional to its life! ### Taleb's Heuristics https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ThEQ34nKfS0 - Theory-driven / Dr John - trust the theory, doubt the data's validity - Data-driven / Fat Tony - trust the data, doubt the theory's validity - How to strike the balance between the two? ask: - Probability my model is right (how much I trust it) - Probability my data could happen if the model was right - "All models are false, but some are useful"